Brian Bollen's Blog

Ring evermore and evermore

Blain’s Morning Porridge 

“Let no tongue on earth be silent, every voice in concert ring, evermore and evermore! ” 

From now till Christmas, the morning quote will be from Christmas songs. Give yourself ten points for each one you recognise, and an extra ten if you sing it out loud in the office… 

Over the weekend I was told recent helpings of Porridge have been far too doom and gloom flavoured. It’s been suggested I should relax about the perilous state of the global economies and stop worrying so much about fractured politics… Even take my own advice about things never being as bad as they look - breathe deep and move on. Although the stories dominating the headlines look profoundly negative – “their collective effect will be little more than light ripples across the teacup of global activity”. (Not sure I believe that… this feels serious…)  

However,

Where does it go from here?

Blain’s Morning Porridge 

“Where does it go from here? Is it down to the lake I fear?” 

Sorry for the lack of commentary yesterday, but I was scrabbling around trying to lash down reality..

If you are struggling to understand why it all looks so financially miserable out there, one of my colleagues summed it up perfectly: “We just passed PEAK TRUMP B*LL*H*T!” 

After’s Sunday’s self-delusional backslapping de-escalation of the China trade war, it’s clear Trump solved nothing. His twitterstorm of subsequent denials, accusations and demands hasn’t helped. The Chinese are furious. His own administration can’t agree. He made it up! The market has had enough. Trump came back claiming a deal with China….. And the market ignored him. Monday’s rally lasted moments and collapsed. Yesterday felt like capitulation.

We will need Desert Power

Blain’s Morning Porridge 

“On Caladan we ruled by sea and air power, here on Arrakis we will need Desert Power…”  

Bit rushed this morning with meetings and updating websites, but markets are opening in a more positive frame. I’d characterise markets this morning as – short-term relief, but still nervous. And there is plenty to be nervous about!

Trump and Xi apparently buried the hatchet in Buenos Ares – fortunately not in each other. They agreed a 90-day stand-down on new tariffs, but the shadow of potential trade war is still lurking if nothing substantive moves forward. It ain’t over yet.