Brian Bollen's Blog

The far greater part of the members are poor and miserable

Blain’s Morning Porridge – St Andrew’s Day

“No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable..”

Today is St Andrew’s Day, the feast day of  Scotland’s patron saint, so let me start with something different this morning. Who can identify the Scotsman in the attached photo?

I’ll give you some clues – he’s a very famous Economist.The Edinburgh Business School at Heriot-Watt University, (the place that once tried to educate me), has redeveloped Panmure House in Edinburgh, the former home of the founding father of our Dismal Science. The house was at the centre of the Edinburgh Enlightenment of the late 18^thcentury where the groundworks of modern finance and markets were first set. There isn’t a single reader of the Morning Porridge who doesn’t owe to something to his thinking on markets, the division of labour, the invisible hand and the sources of the wealth of nations.

I bet I can scare you

Blain’s Morning Porridge

“You can’t scare me, I’m Italian. But, I bet I can scare you..”

I’ve posted links to all today’s major stories on the Morning Porridge Website. They include  reactions to Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s extraordinary economic Brexit forecast yesterday, a superb article from the Wall Street Journal detailing the breakdown of China/US trade talks, a number of stories on US Federal Reserve’s Chairman Powell’s volte farce [sic] about US rates now being close to “neutral” (and a timely reminder that President Trump can’t actually sack him).  Plus,

We can make a complete pig’s breakfast of the whole thing

Blain’s Morning Porridge

“Now that we’re inside we can make a complete pig’s breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch… The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it’s just like old times..”

I’m really sorry, but I’m going to write about Brexit. I apologise – but I promise not to whine about remain versus leave, demand a new referendum or the execution of remainers for treason. The British problem is that Brexit is all about politics – but in a form utterly unfamiliar to UK electors. We always thought “politics” was about Labour or the Conservatives squabbling about tiny tweaks to the tax rate or how much more to spend on the NHS, with a convenient safety value in the form of a protest vote for these nice chaps from the Liberal party..

Good advice, but I very seldom follow it…

Blain’s Morning Porridge

“I give myself very good advice, but I very seldom follow it..”

 Sorry for no comment yesterday, but it was a very busy one. As we approach the end of November and the start of the serious party season, 2019 market guesses are hitting inboxes across the financial world. Some of them might even merit being opened and read! 

Although we’ve now seen something of a recovery from last week’s lows – stocks are higher, and even GE bonds have gained a few points, the underlying mood remains negative. Speaking to clients yesterday… more than a few can’t see the point in opening the investment banks’ glossy outlooks. Everything is so absolutely miserable.. there is nothing on the horizon to be cheerful about. We are all doomed…doomed… 

Lost a Word document...

I lost a Microsoft Word document yesterday afternoon after I had to force the app to quit. I thought I had safely saved the work in question, into which I had invested the best part of two hours. I don't feel ashamed to say that I was on the brink of tears at the thought of having to do it all again. But after trying everything I knew, I just had to rewrite it from scratch, a soul-destroying exercise. It's not in trash or the autorecovery folder. Any suggestions where I might find it?

Winter is coming…

Blain’s Morning Porridge

“For they are the knights of summer and winter is coming.”

US Thanksgiving Day. May they enjoy. For the rest of us a quiet day in prospect? I think not.What’s wrong with these markets? Markets are about sentiment and expectations. At the moment, the mood feels miserable. The overarching concern is global growth versus timing of the next recession. (Yep.. it’s coming.. just like Winter.) I’m not hearing anyone particularly enthused or seeing any positive prospects for the upcoming G20 or how current trade ructions will play out.

Planning ahead

For the record, I am currently planning my next few weeks of writing, editing and/or media training assignments. If you have anything you need attending to in those areas, don't hesitate to email me: [email protected].

Or do the old-fashioned thing and give me a call: 07860 626745.

Brian :)

 

Must stop reading newspapers

Blain’s Morning Porridge

“I’ve always admired Capital Mainwaring.” [I don’t!]

I must stop reading newspapers. They are scary. Why worry about stocks and bonds when we’ve apparently got a pinwheel nebula spinning at heaven knows what speed, named after the Egyptian God of Chaos (Apep), about to go nova and it’s practically right next door – only 8,000 light years away! That’s like the desk next to me in galactic terms! If a gamma ray burst from such an event hits we are all literally toast. Global crash or supernova? You choose. Rather puts things in perspective….

But, let’s assume a supernova is not going to happen before I collect my pension.. so back to the day job. Another bad day in stocks and still it’s the tech companies that are leading the downside. Oil is taking a spanking, and if there was anything positive to say about the bond markets, bless me, but I can’t find it. 

For every Netflix there is a Blockbuster

Blain’s Morning Porridge

“For every Netflix there is a Blockbuster. Every Facebook, a MySpace. Every iPod, a Walkman.”

Gibraltar. It’s always Gibraltar. The Spanish want Gibraltar back. Tried a few times and it’s never worked terribly well for them. We’ll have Shabby National back from Santander then? (There’s a name fewer and fewer of us remember….)

And the French want our fish. Bring it on. When it comes to Peterhead versus thew, my money is on the Peetaheid loons every time.. 

Doctor Who plumbs further depths

Oh dear me. Last night's Doctor Who plumbed new depths of abysmality (if there is such a word). The writers, or someone working with them, clearly knows sci-fi and cinema. I spotted what I interpreted as visual, textual or aural references to: Lost in Space; First Men in The Moon; Charlie and the Chocolate Factory; Indiana Jones; I Robot; Dune; Star Wars and Hitch-Hiker's Guide to The Galaxy.

But the result is one vast mish-mash. I am fed up being hit over the head with third-form political polemic and if I hear one more northern accent I shall scream and scream and scream until I am sick. And I can...

Situation excellente

Blain’s Morning Porridge 

“Mon Centre cede, ma droite recule, situation excellente, j’attaque..”

Oh No…! it’s Monday again.. So soon?

What have we got to worry about? Short week in the US due to Thanksgiving on Thursday and the start of the consumption season kicking off on Black Friday when millions of us will spend money we don’t have on stuff we don’t need.

The best we can do in Europe is Beaujolais Nouveau…if anyone else remembers that particularly good reason for leaving Europe’s wine lake to the Europeans, let’s spare others and do a bottle at lunchtime Thursday?

BNP Paribas Securities Services reappointed by Poste Italiane

BNP Paribas Securities Services reports this morning that it has been reappointed by Poste Italiane as its local and global custodian. 

Poste Italiane is the holding company of the Poste Italiane Group, one of the largest Italian companies in the service sector. With a history dating back more than 150 years, the company has nearly

The iron rule of markets

Blain’s Morning Porridge 

“Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of markets..”

Let’s have a Brexit Free morning.. see how the dust settles, who kills who, and who is left standing on Monday morning..

Two of the most important of Blain’s Trading Mantras arre:

 THE MARKET HAS NO MEMORY

 THE MARKET’S ONLY OBJECTIVE IS TO INFLICT THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF PAIN ON THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS”

Citi launches direct services in Norway

Citi reports this morning that it will begin offering direct custody and clearing (DCC) services to clients in Norway, starting mid-November. It says the new offering expands its proprietary DCC network to over 60 markets globally, including 37 markets across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).

Dracul has landed

Our postman has just delivered my review copy of Dracul, the prequel to Bram Stoker's Dracula. The great-grand-nephew of Stoker, Dacre Stoker, has worked with author J D Barker to pull together the narrative from notes and journals left by Bram, who is at the heart of the action as a sickly child in this 481-page volume published by Penguin Random House.

The author's notes are fascinating, featuring real-life jottings by the young Bram Stoker such as: I once knew a little boy who put so many flies in a bottle that they had not room to die!!!, which is quoted in part two of Dracula. There is also a vampire memo, detailing the absence of looking glasses in the Count's house, the absence of a reflection in looking glasses elsewhere and the observation that he never eats or drinks. Bordering on the slightly gruesome, the notes end with a shot of Bram's own gravestone.

The prequel proper ends on a tender note that encapsulates the highs and lows of vampiredom, which to this reader recall the plight of Conmor MacLeod of the Clan MacLeod in Highlander, in that the undead (all things being equal and avoiding stakes in the heart and being burnt in sunlight) will live on while others, some of whom become loved ones, are born, grow, age and, of course, die.

They shall not grow old, as it were. What a fitting thought for this weekend when we commemorate the 100th anniversary of the armistice that is now commonly accepted as the ending of the First World War, culminating in the broadcast of Peter Jackson's documentary They Shall Not Grow Old on Sunday evening on BBC2.

I read Dracula when I was about 13, and found it immensely superior to Frankenstein. I loved the structure, tone and content, and a prevailing physical darkness. From my limited sampling so far this morning, Dacre Stoker and JD Barker have done a fine job. Prequels and sequels can be humdrum affairs, and often seem to the forensic reader little more than a stitching together of original author's notes combined with hackneyed clichéd 'original' scenes.

Here I am mostly thinking of the Dune series, begun by Frank Herbert as the single best book I have ever read, the original Dune, expanded into a confusing trilogy and then a baffling sexology which left the audience hanging literally in mid-air in space, then was developed by his son Brian and collaborator Kevin J Anderson. They do ultimately bring the original stories to a reasonably satisfactory conclusion but milk the franchise to death in the process. I learn from Dracul that Dacre Stoker has written an official sequel to the original, called Dracula the Un-Dead. I must take a look at that too.

Dracul

By Dacre Stoker and JD Barker

481 pages

Published by Penguin Random House UK, authorised by the Bram Stoker Estate

ISBN 978-0-593-08010-8

£12.99

 

 

Confused? You will be...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 

“The English, a regiment from the county of Suffolk, had opposite them at that time the 73rd Hanoverian Fusiliers, who wear as their distinctive badge a brassard with 'Gibraltar' inscribed on it in gold, in memory of their defence of that fortress under General Elliot; for this, besides Waterloo, has its place in the Fusiliers history.” *

In the headlines this morning.

Markets staged a predictable relief rally yesterday as the US mid-term election uncertainty evaporated. Some predictable headlines about Christmas coming early for markets. Relieved at gridlock? Well that sums up the world today… How long will the momentum last?

Not long if Trump’s press conference meltdown last night means anything. Markets are all about sentiment, mood and expectations. Sadly, these are all bound up with one very angry critter skulking in the White House.

Even the rats became hysterical

Blain’s Morning Porridge 

“Even the rats became hysterical. They came into our flimsy shelters to seek refuge from the artillery. Seven day and seven nights shell after shell burst upon us. And then the British Army came over the top.” 

In the headlines this morning, lots of commentary about how the Blue Wave failed to drench the Red Wall. The analysis is all about how markets are set to rise on the back of less uncertainty. It’s time for a more fundamental reassessment.

We live in “The Age of Political Failure”. It isn’t just Trump. It’s Brazil. It’s Italy. It’s Brexit. It’s European elections next year. It’s France, Germany, Hungary, and just about anywhere else where populists are getting in because political systems have failed to deliver. Around the globe the mounting failures to deliver clean environments, education, honour human rights, create jobs and foster equality are going to challenge future markets.

Canadian pension returns post slight gain in Q3

Canadian defined benefit pension plans posted a slim uptick in the third quarter of 2018, returning 0.1 percent, down from Q2 returns of 2.2 percent, according to the RBC Investor & Treasury Services All Plan Universe.

Canadian equities posted a negative Q3 2018 return of -0.3 percent, reversing the Q2 2018 returns of 6.8 percent.

The TSX Composite Index posted a similar decline, primarily due to weakness in energy and materials stocks, returning -0.6 percent in Q3 2018 compared to 6.8 percent in Q2 2018. Healthcare was the sole bright spot in Q3, due to robust performing cannabis stocks. Interest rate hikes and ongoing trade tensions also negatively impacted return levels.

The Baltics: The Next Tinderbox?

Brian Whitmer, Chief Analyst for Elliott Wave International’s European Financial Forecast, has penned this thought-provoking, even spine-chilling, note on social, economic and political sentiment in a region that arguably receives less attention than perhaps it should.

Political, economic and social problems continue to emerge in the EU’s Eastern European countries. While core Europe has so far escaped the tug of contraction, shares across the eastern bloc continue to drag down overall performance.

The Stoxx EU Enlarged 15 Index, which tracks shares across the 12 Eastern Bloc nations that joined the EU in 2004, is down 62 percent from its November 2007 all-time high, reflecting a persistent negative mood in the region.

In the Balkans, the October 6 win by Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is the latest manifestation of the regional mood. Dodik’s secessionist agenda won him a seat on Bosnia’s three-member state presidency, and the negative mood should serve to further his plans to carve out an independent state in the region.

In the Baltics, societal mood is also flirting with a major directional change. The INVL Baltic Fund, a mutual fund registered in Lithuania that invests in regional equities and money markets, crashed a jaw-dropping 83 percent during the 2008 financial crisis.

More luck than brains

Blain’s Morning Porridge 

“If I should come out of this war alive, I will have more luck than brains. I like to fly, not to kill..” 

 In the headlines this morning, there are innumerable sites predicting the US mid-term results. The consensus is the Democrats are likely to post a small win in Congress, while the Republicans will hold onto the Senate. That’s a recipe for gridlock – a result many financial commentators think could be a mild market positive.

It’s a confusing moral dilemma: the heart says Congressional Gridlock restraining Trump’s least pleasant behaviours must be a good thing. The head says more pro-business Trump initiatives is a good thing for markets, employment and growth.