What did you think of the show?

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge BREXIT DAY 2016

Apart from that, what did you think of the show Mrs Lincoln?

 It has not been a pretty night. But, it is not the end of the world. And what has been done has been done (quite badly since you ask). Canary Wharf is being renamed Plaza de Veinte-Tres…

It might be some consolation if the UK was exiting Europe after a deep consideration of all the consequences of remaining linked to the failing eurozone economy – an economy based on the crazy failed economic theory of the euro.

Please.. let’s face the stark truth.. Brexit (British exit from the European Union) has been achieved on the back of angry voters sticking their proverbial fingers up to the UK establishment and a not insignificant amount of blatant racism. It’s the kind of protest vote that bodes ill for Donald Trump’s grab for the presidency. Folk around the world are deeply, deeply dissatisfied with their political choices.

And folk are right to be furious at politics – the Labour party proved utterly disconnected from its electorate, while David Cameron’s place in history is assured for all the wrong reasons. Why David? Why ever let such a dangerous vote to happen? It rankles that Boris Johnson is likely to get some grand job of state for his rank ambition. Methinks he hath a lean and hungry look (if you can ever describe a mop-topped stocky chap like BoJo in such a fashion..)   
         

While the rich suburbs and centre of London, and Academia voted to stay, less well off and deprived Britain was persuaded Europe was to blame for their failing social services, immigrants are taking their jobs, and is responsible for all that ails them.

No wonder the rest of the world stands mouth agape and horrified this morning. What were we thinking?

Quite simple. My country has had enough of the EU telling us what we are. We don’t share a common dream. Personally I count myself Scots and British first and European a close second. We love Europe – so please forgive us. Don’t hate us for it. It’s not you.. it’s us. We got serious commitment issues..  

The mood across Mint’s trading floor is fascinating this morning. About half my colleagues think it’s a disaster, end of the world, spelling crashing property prices, a stock tumble, years of uncertainty and the likely split of the UK when Scotland declares another independence referendum. Yep, they might be right. But probably aren’t.

The rest of us are being pragmatic and anticipating the potential upside – a new government perhaps might just see the opportunity to reset UK plc. Let’s do some imaginative thinking on the fiscal side to create growth.

Thus far we’ve heard little from Europe – it would be good if we did. If nothing else, the UK vote should focus the Euro elites on the carrot rather than the stick to stop others following us out. That may spell some serious efforts to create jobs and growth across Europe. Either that or find another way to get Germany off the fence.

As for the markets? It was pretty torrid for a while as Asia went into absolute panic. I mean, no one had told them it was even possible. As we go into the European market trading day, there is definitely a calmer tone.. but let’s see how that fares as David Cameron is hauled away in a tumbril...and fear and uncertainty mounts.

As my chum Steve Previs asks. Oil, corn, wheat and soya are crashing...does that mean folk are going to stop eating, driving their cars or stop heating their houses because of this vote?

In 32 years of markets I’ve never seen anything quite like this, but what I know is markets often overreact and create serious buying windows. It's happening, and as I so often say.. get over it.

Last night we called the risk-off bond trade (short term) and FTSE bargains (long-term). We think the global economy is more than able to weather this and is more resilient than you think. And myself and my chum Martin Malone called it at 49/51 Exit around 2am. Not bad..

Going home early methinks.. have a great weekend..

Bill Blain

Mint Partners