Brian Bollen's Blog

Carney speech a masterclass

Bank of England governor Mark Carney's speech this afternoon, some of which I watched live on Sky/Bloomberg/BBC and the rest I have just read, is a masterclass in saying nothing.

Other than that it confirms the BofE is not independent of government as is often claimed, but is only operationally independent (with its goals defined by Parliament, the Bank has operational independence (page 12).

Everything we hear is opinion, not fact

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not a truth

Brexit: a dry legal opinion

Brexit - Implications and Next Steps

For anyone still celebrating the outcome of the June 23 2016 UK referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave the European Union, the following considered legal opinion from the law firm Baker Botts might just have a sobering effect.

Joe Hart saved nothing

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

Hammer of the gods, will drive our ships to new lands, to fight the hordes, and sing and cry.. Valhalla I am coming.. 

“Iceland is supposed to be cheap, but Joe Hart saved nothing…”

The besieging of Iceland's goal

Let's be honest. The England-Iceland match tonight will almost certainly be a 90-120-minute siege on Iceland's goal. The entertainment value is going to be derived from watching England struggle to figure out how to get round a massed, disciplined and apparently tireless defence.

If they get one goal relatively early, I predict the flood gates could well open. If not, it will be bye-bye to Roy Hodgson. 

I wish them every piece of good luck.

Why Brexit will not happen. Real-life House of Cards

This essay on why Brexit will never happen, from DK Matai, chairman of QBrain Capital, is long, but well worth reading, along with the appended comment from The Guardian...

PIMCO: From Brexit to Stagflation?

Many of those who voted “Leave” on Thursday reportedly already regret it, either because they didn’t really expect to prevail and merely wanted to register a protest vote, or because of the sharp sell-off in financial markets and the mushrooming forecasts of recession, writes Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at PIMCO, in one of the tornado of mini-essays on the topic of British exit from the European Union.

Could we start again please?

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

Two questions for global markets: will the next few trading sessions yet prove a buying opportunity, or will the ongoing weakness following Brexit (British exit from the European Union) prove the precursor to the long-feared global market reset?

What did you think of the show?

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge BREXIT DAY 2016

Apart from that, what did you think of the show Mrs Lincoln?

Is the weather trying to tell us something?

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

But never till tonight, never till now, did I go through a tempest dropping fire. Either there is a civil strife in heaven, or else the world incenses the Gods to send destruction.…

Make your mind up time

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

You gotta speed it up, and then you gotta slow it down…

This is the last day to make my mind up. This time tomorrow, I’ll have voted. By this time Friday...we will know (the result of the UK vote on European Union membership). In/Out or shake it all about?

Investors should monitor bond markets, not Brexit

Brexit (British exit from the European Union) won’t be a catalyst for a revaluation in bond markets until investors tire of current low yields, Thesis Asset Management’s Michael Lally has said.

Lally also stated that a revaluation would probably not occur until any of the central banks chose to raise rates, as opposed to being influenced by a Brexit vote on June 23. 

Following the recent flurry of long bonds issued and bought by many in the eurozone, Lally believes yields on such bonds are at potentially unsustainable levels, despite the demand from yield hungry investors.

“Spain’s latest bond auction was three times oversubscribed, and many eurozone government bond yields are now in negative territory,” he comments. “France recently issued its 50-year bonds at a paltry 1.9% yield, while both Ireland and Belgium went the whole hog and issued 100-year bonds at 2.3%. 

“These yields are obviously unsustainable in the long run, but are supported for now by the European Central Bank’s continued stimulus. Even the Fed (US Federal Reserve) is reluctant to raise rates for fear of rocking the boat.

“Just how far distressed buyers of yield are prepared to go before the tide turns, remains to be seen. Countries such as Greece don’t exactly offer a guarantee with their enticing rates.”

The sense of ennui is almost overwhelming

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

There are mornings when the depressing sense of ennui is almost overwhelming.

It's 1973. Nearly dinner time. I’m having hoops..

 

 Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge  

Very short Porridge this morning as I’m rushing between a succession of all the various marvellous things I get to do all day. (To sleep, perchance to dream…. Aye there’s the rub..)

What a difference

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

 What a difference a few weeks makes.

Schroders welcomes Kashiwagi

Schroders has named Shigesuke Kashiwagi as president and country head of Japan, effective July 1.

AMRO Clearing Bank goes live on WSE

ABN AMRO Clearing Bank NV, KDPW_CCP’s first foreign participant, has started to clear transactions on GPW’s cash and derivatives market.

Pershing Adds AltX Hedge Fund Intelligence

Pershing LLC, a BNY Mellon company, announced today at its INSITE 2016 conference that it has added the hedge fund intelligence platform, AltX, to its Alternative Investment Center (sic).

Deutsche Bank wins Arroyo mandate

Deutsche Bank has been selected to provide fund administration services for Arroyo Energy Investors, a private equity firm focused on power generation and midstream assets in the Americas. 

Live long and prosper (not)

A global survey of 400 pension professionals, commissioned by State Street, shows they see longevity risk as the biggest threat they face.