Brian Bollen's Blog

End of an era at Templeton

We are officially approaching the end of an era, as with effect from April 15, 2016, Dr Mark Mobius will transition day-to-day management of Templeton Emerging Markets Group (TEMG) to Stephen Dover, chief investment officer of Franklin Local Asset Management (LAM). 

Banks more dangerous than armies

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies..

England football team: I stand corrected

I commented over the Easter weekend that the England football team that somehow beat Germany on Saturday was the worst I had ever seen. I stand corrected. Last night's team against the Netherlands was even worse. I've seen better football down Espieside on a Saturday morning in 1971-72 with the St Pat's Intermediates team than was on offer at Wembley last night. I reckon our cat could cross better than Danny Rose, and she's been dead for over six years.

The Netherlands team was also the worst Oranje line-up I've ever seen. Have the major western football leagues become so full of imported players from elsewhere that the talent pool for their national teams is even narrower and shallower than suspected?

Incidentally, the only mention of Scotland's victory over Denmark last night in The Times (allegedly a UK national newspaper) was in the results section. I don't expect much, honestly, but five pages for England and not a word about Scotland's second successive victory, and second successive clean sheet? That is virtually a 'run' for us!

Larkin about

ITG, the independent broker and financial technology provider, reports from New York that Andrew J Larkin will be rejoining it on April 11, as managing director in charge of POSIT Alert client coverage.

Perpetual light shines upon RBC

News just arrived from Sydney, Australia, relates that RBC Investor & Treasury Services has been retained as custodian and administrator to Perpetual, one of Australia’s most highly regarded and awarded investment managers.

Not everything actually means something..

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

The global economy looks to be stuck in a negative feedback loop. Or maybe I’d be better describing it as the dollar see-saw?

Asset segregation complete: BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Securities Services says it has completed the segregation of clients’ UCITS assets that it holds under depositary in France, Germany, Ireland, Italy Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, as required by the UCITS V directive.

You find you're back in Vegas

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

Now you swear and kick and beg us that you’re not a gambling man, then you find you’re back in Vegas… 

Credit Suisse grabs the spotlight

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

I’m very well acquainted too with matters mathematical, I understand equations, both the simple and quadratical…

The man in the trenchcoat

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

I’m on the pavement thinking about the government, the man in the trenchcoat..

On the road to Mandalay

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge

Very interesting week in Dubai - our conference on Alternative Asset Investment Strategies was very well received. Now it's time to play catch up on global markets – which seem to be absolute rock’n’roll with the Dow right back where my stockpicker colleague Steve Previs said would be, while oil is back to $40 per barrel. Let me go figure what it all means. What has the Federal Reserve really been saying? How big are the internal European Central Bank tensions? Should we worry about the next wobble from China? And why it makes sense to buy bonds at yields less than inflation targets...really??

But, with Easter approaching and the market slowing, my first observation would be that it is politics and the perceptions of politics that are likely to dominate the narrative around the globe. Politics = uncertainty, and uncertainty is never a good thing for markets.. (Until, of course, they cause prices to over-react and create buying windows...)

In Europe, some deal with Turkey was necessary, but from a political perspective it could prove costly. I can't help but wonder if anyone in the Eurocracy has considered increasingly alienated European voters in this equation? The immediate effect will likely to confirm the effective end of no-borders Yoorp (Europe), and prove retrograde for closer union. As numerous articles point out, it looks like a German deal to the benefit of Germany. Another straw on the camel's back?

(Speaking of Camels and the curious Completion Backwards Principal that is Dubai... After much research, Prodi and I discovered the cheapest and best stuffed Kids Camels are to be found at the airport. Despite some world class haggling, the souks around the Creek proved the most expensive, and even more costly than one of the luxury hotels we met clients in for lunch. We do these things so you don't have to...and Prodi's toddler was delighted with his dromedary plush.)

Next up is the UK, where the implosion of the Conservative Party is happening at pace. 'Call me Dave' Cameron must have realised just how divisive the Brexit (British exit from the European Union) referendum would be, but the clear political jockeying for his job now threatens to tear them apart. Normally it would be very difficult to find myself supporting George Osborne, but when he's up against the assembled forces of Boris Johnsonesque buffoonery...it's an easy call. What's the alternative? Please. Don't make me admit to being a lifelong Labour supporter... It's just too embarrassing..

And, then of course.. then there is the USA. There are some very very funny videos on the subject of Trump. My favourite is one that cuts away to the Canadians building a wall. What will it actually mean if Trump is elected? Will it be the predicted end of the world as we know it that everyone expects?

Nope. But it will be an issue. Consider what the President of the United States can actually do. His/her powers are limited and famously balanced. Signing or vetoing legislation, commanding the armed forces (where Trump has 27% of the votes compared to 11% for Hillary Clinton), receiving ambassadors, appointing senior Federal employees and Judges, are all important aspects of the role. I must read up exactly what and what not POTUS can actually do..

However, the real role is more about the implications of being President - the “soft” power that comes from leading the world’s most important nation. That power only functions in conjunction with the ability to deliver - which will likely be utterly comprised between a Trump executive and the legislature.

Therefore, the most likely outcome of a Trump Presidency will be deepening US political gridlock, government discombobulation, and even more dysfunction than usual. I doubt Trump even has the 7,000 senior officials to appoint to the Presidential sinecures. Go figure what that means for the economy and business.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is likely to see a great chance of US weakness and disengagement on the basis that for all him bombacity, Trump will likely prove the antithesis of the "Talk soft, but carry a big stick" approach to diplomacy.

I’m sure Trump is not nearly as bad as the pundits would have us believe, but the fact he’s close to electable is the inevitable consequence of a jaded and tired US political system that sold its soul to big business and money, and lost its relevance to the bulk of its electorate years ago. Which is why there is a very very good chance he wins.

Yet, electing a really, really bad President might just remind our Transatlantic Cousins why it's such an important job, and why they have to do better in future.

Full service resumes tomorrow..

Bill Blain

44 207 786 3877

44 7770 881033

[email protected]

[email protected]

SS&C recruits Stephanie Miller

SS&C Technologies Holdings, a global provider of financial services software and software-enabled services, says Stephanie Miller will join the company as senior vice president in April 2016. 

The deification of Paul Daniels

Switch on BBC Radio Five Live now to hear Paul Daniels ascending body and soul into heaven, the latest late well known person to benefit from the BBC's desperate need to fill air time and gaze into its own navel. Some perspective please...

Glossing over extra austerity

Azad Zangana, Senior European Economist, comments on the UK's 2016 Budget.

In his Budget announced on Wednesday 16 March, UK Chancellor George Osborne chose to focus on small tax breaks, reforms and micro spending announcements, while glossing over the extra austerity planned.

ICE heats up in Asia

Intercontinental Exchange, an operator of global exchanges and clearing houses and provider of data and listings services which might or might not launch a rival bid for the London Stock Exchange Group, has introduced credit default swap (CDS) clearing today for the iTraxx Australia and iTraxx Asia ex-Japan Investment Grade indices, and the following sovereign names: Australia, China, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines.

Liquidnet passes US$1 billion mark

Liquidnet, the global institutional trading network, says its fixed income dark pool has exceeded $1bn of volume traded, after just five months. Designed to provide a seamless solution for buy-side corporate bond traders, Liquidnet’s fixed income solution delivers a protected venue where they can trade natural liquidity in size, both safely and efficiently.

Liquidnet says it enables trading for US and European corporate bonds (high yield and investment grade), emerging market corporate bonds, and European convertible bonds. In addition to volume traded, the platform has experienced notable growth in users, with the fixed income Member community growing to 155 firms and over 330 active traders. Daily liquidity on the platform also continues to rise to an approximate $7bn daily average since the beginning of March.

Milestone for Henderson Global

 

Milestone Group, a global provider of optimised fund processing solutions, says that Henderson Global Investors (HGI) has gone live with pControl Fund Oversight across its extensive range of mutual funds and investment trusts.

Grupo BMV and Euroclear bolster Mexican fund market

Grupo Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (Grupo BMV), the Mexican stock exchange group, and Euroclear, the Brussels-based international central securities depository (ICSD), say they have signed an agreement to create a joint venture – BMV Fondos SA de CV (BMV Fondos) - to accelerate and deepen the liquidity of the Mexican mutual funds market.

Bitcoin/Blockchain-The Wizard of Oz

Bitcoin/Blockchain. The Wizard of Oz. Discuss.

Low marks for Our Kind of Traitor

Have just finished reading Our Kind of Traitor, published under the John Le Carré banner in 2010. The book reminds me of the Monty Python Contractual Obligation Album.