Not much has changed in the outlook for the US economy or the US financial markets, according to John Osterweis, founder, chairman and chief investment officer and Matt Berler, president, chief executive officer and portfolio manager at Osterweis Capital Management in their July 2015 Equity Investment Outlook.
The US economy appears to have rebounded in the second quarter, new jobs are being created, housing persists in its grudging recovery, inflation remains low, the dollar is strong and profit margins remain at record highs, the co-managers say.
The stock market appears to reflect all this good news, and they are not concerned about US Federal Reserve monetary tightening precipitating a market crash, as the early phase of a Fed tightening cycle reflects general strength. Only later does it send the stock market towards a bear market, they say.
Osterweis thinks that we may be entering the final third of this bull cycle and notes that historically, the late stages of a bull market tend to be more selective than the early stages.
In conclusion, the managers urge avoiding currently overly popular stocks and are instead searching out unpopular, out-of-favour names, in order to try to limit risk and enhance long-term returns.
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US economy: not much has changed
Not much has changed in the outlook for the US economy or the US financial markets, according to John Osterweis, founder, chairman and chief investment officer and Matt Berler, president, chief executive officer and portfolio manager at Osterweis Capital Management in their July 2015 Equity Investment Outlook.
US economy: not much has changed
Not much has changed in the outlook for the US economy or the US financial markets, according to John Osterweis, founder, chairman and chief investment officer and Matt Berler, president, chief executive officer and portfolio manager at Osterweis Capital Management in their July 2015 Equity Investment Outlook.
The stock market appears to reflect all this good news, and they are not concerned about US Federal Reserve monetary tightening precipitating a market crash, as the early phase of a Fed tightening cycle reflects general strength. Only later does it send the stock market towards a bear market, they say.
Osterweis thinks that we may be entering the final third of this bull cycle and notes that historically, the late stages of a bull market tend to be more selective than the early stages.
In conclusion, the managers urge avoiding currently overly popular stocks and are instead searching out unpopular, out-of-favour names, in order to try to limit risk and enhance long-term returns.
Posted at 09:51 AM in News & Comment | Permalink