Brian Bollen's Blog

I Don't Want To Bore You

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge – August 13 2014

I lost my job as a cricket commentator for saying “I don’t want to bore you with the details

Sorry for lack of comment thus far this week, but we’ve not missed much in terms of market action. Thin and featureless would be a good description. Put it this way – I had lots of time for catching up on admin type stuff. A few brief moments of excitement as we saw demand for Eastern Europe and EM. Even a brief smattering of corporate bonds.The slide in CoCo prices seems to have been arrested.. Treasuries are drifting and if there is anyone out there.. let us know..

Northern Trust Celebrates 125th Name Day

Congratulations to Northern Trust which today (August 12 2014) marks 125 years since it first opened its doors for business in 1889. The Chicago-based global bank, established by Byron Laflin Smith, has more than 20 international locations, $6 trillion in assets under custody and $924bn in assets under management.

Russian Recession Looms

Craig Botham, Emerging Market Economist at Schroders, gives his views on Russia's second quarter GDP estimate, which suggest sthat recession looms.

Are We Nearly There Yet?

Craig Botham, emerging market economist at Schroders, gives his view on the emerging market export recovery.

The emerging market (EM) export recovery is seemingly always on the horizon, but never arriving. However, there are signs of a modest pick-up in some EM economies. We find evidence that this time around, the export recovery will be more selective than in the past. 

China And India Economies In Focus

By Alan Higgins, CIO, UK at Coutts

Following our recent shift to a positive view on emerging relative to developed equities, news from Asia’s two biggest economies has been encouraging. Economic data continues to reflect a bottoming in India’s business cycle and stabilisation of Chinese growth, albeit at a slower pace than in the recent past.

I am not young enough to know everything…

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge – August 7 2014

Don’t even ask. The ECB won’t do anything today. Except talk. Which begs the question.. What is actually going on within the ECB? Deflation stares Europe in the face – (which means the ECB is failing in its only mandated goal of price stability!) The ECB princes fiddle while Europe burns. The continent’s economic performance is beyond miserable – and experience shows demand, consumption and growth are unlikely to be enhanced in a deflationary environment.  Jobs? Forget em!

Lombard Odier Picks Confluence

Confluence, the investment data management automation specialist, says it has been appointed by Lombard Odier Funds (Europe) S.A., the Luxembourg-based management company of Lombard Odier Investment Managers (LOIM), to provide its automated budgeting application for asset managers. LOIM will be using Confluence’s Unity NXT Budgeting and Unity NXT Invoice Payments expense management solutions in the management of their Luxembourg UCITS and AIF fund expenses.

Where the ocean meets the sky I’ll be sailing..

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge – August 6 2014

No never will I roam for I know my place is home where the ocean meets the sky I’ll be sailing..

Dang.. Russia’s proposed flight ban over Siberia will put four hours on my trip to Singapore to see some clients about a new deal we’re putting together. Or I could just get on the phone and save a shedload of money. Option two it is.

The Time For Remorse Is Over…

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge – August 5 2014

Great story from the excellent John Glover on Bloomberg this morning: “Bond Liquidity Falls 70% in Europe as Issuance Surges”.

Basically the story backs up everything we’ve been saying for years about the failure of secondary bond markets at a time when primary bond markets have been on fire. It’s skewed investments and direction. When sentiment changes and bondholders want to sell – the challenge to exit will be more than a nightmare - bond markets are likely to prove a trap.

SWF Buys Hit Near-decade Level

Acquisitions by global sovereign wealth funds (SWF) total $15.2bn in 2014 year-to-date, down 4% from 2013 YTD ($15.7bn) and the lowest YTD level since 2005 ($8.5bn), according to figures from data specialist Dealogic.

Is Janet Yellen Right?

By Tim Dowling, head of global high-yield credit at ING Investment Management

After testifying to Congress earlier this month, chair of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen said there was “some evidence of ‘reach for yield’ behaviour” in the high-yield bond market. As a high-yield bond portfolio manager, I certainly agree with chairman Yellen: people have been reaching for yield anywhere they can get it since the central banks took the yield on safe investments to almost zero. To me, the questions worth asking are, does reaching for yield now make sense, and, if so, in which market should one reach?

Seven Out Of 10 Investors Disappointed

 Speed read: One in six (17%) of institutions say at least half of their funds exceeded their risk tolerance; only 18% say all their funds stayed within their risk tolerance; 42% say it becomes too difficult at the level of sector /individual securities to predict future market moves.

Northern Trust: the next five years in capital markets

Speed read: Enduring and maturing global growth; emerging markets to return 9%, developed markets 7% on annualised basis.

Human Beings Prove Fallible

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge – August 4th 2014

Human beings, like plans, prove fallible in the presence of those ingredients that are missing in manoeuvres – danger, death and live ammunition…

I recently worked out that Europe's banks have raised about €400bn of new equity and 50bn of new T1 CoCo/AT1 since the crisis began in 2007. In that time non-performing loans (NPLs) within the European banking system have increased from €511bn to over €1220bn... which basically means there is still a rising capital shortfall of €260bn odd.. and only countries where NPLs are falling are UK, Ireland and Germany! Essentially, European banking is still pants.

US: Why Worry About Rising Wages?

Ahead of today's US jobs report, Schroders' chief economist Keith Wade comments on the trend towards stronger wage growth in the US and the impact this could have for the wider economy.

Winter Is Coming…

Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge – August 1 (Swiss National Day) 2014

August – a month when you realise you are about to miss summer, and it will soon be winter again…